Have you ever wished you had a GPS to help you navigate the Rand movements against the Dollar, Euro and other markets?
Or perhaps, to put it in other words (or emotions), have you ever felt alone, lost and bewildered when faced with buying or selling your foreign currency?
Something like being on an unknown road in an unknown area. With no signposts as to where you're heading. Or how long you will to take to get there.
Worse yet, you're driving in the dark with headlights that are as dim as candles.
And even scarier, there are no warning signs of impending dangers ahead – rough terrain, hairpin bends, or even worse, sudden unexpected detours, potholes or obstructions. Dangers that could cause your vehicle considerable damage – or even worse still, severe injury to yourself.
If you have traded foreign exchange for any period of time, be it as an importer, exporter or as an individual, you well know this feeling and experience...
...Getting hurt when you thought you knew where the market was heading ... only for it to do just the opposite ... unexpectedly ... again
The result: Damage to your vehicle (business) and very likely to yourself (stress, anxiety, stomach ulcers, migraines, depression). Which all doesn’t help you to be in the right frame of mind when you need to trade the next time around.
Not a great zone to be in – stressed, uncertain, lost, frustrated, frightened, unsure, anxious, bewildered and scared.
And what is worse, when you try and take advice from those around, after a while you realize they are as much in the dark as you are.
Well, something just struck me the other day while driving in Johannesburg, and I thought it good to share this thought with you. Because it could help change the way you look at things, and help relieve you of these negative emotions and thoughts.
Navigation has changed dramatically, especially over the past decade or so.
Back in the old days, when Bartholomew Diaz, Christopher Columbus and the lads headed out into the unknown, there was some guidance from the stars and the sun. But that didn’t stop them getting lost or getting shipwrecked. And when the elements were at the worst, with severe storms (when they needed direction the most), these guiding lights were obstructed from view by the same dark black clouds that were bringing their fearful destruction.
But, technology has changed all this. We now have the wonderful invention of GPS (Global Positioning System).
This is technology that has changed the world of navigation forever. Originally only available to the elite (US Defence), this is now something that is available to everyone.
No matter what the conditions, no-one has any excuse for getting lost or hurt. You now have technology that has mapped out the well-worn routes and roads that have been travelled in the past by others - but new to you.
And it is able to determine exactly where you are, where you are heading, and what lies ahead. And you even have built-in warnings of known dangers ahead based on past experiences (sharp turns, speed traps, etc).
And if you have ever driven in an unknown city with a GPS, you know what a difference it makes. Many times in the past, I have stressed out finding my way round unknown areas in Johannesburg, but last time I was there I used a GPS.
What a difference.
A few minutes of familiarizing myself with this piece of technology, and in no time I was driving the streets as if I had lived there all my life - well, almost! And even if there were some detours on the road, or I did take a wrong turn, this piece of technology informed me, recalculated my route, and brought me back on course in no time at all (no point arguing with this woman - she does know more than you!)
As I said, what a difference - it took all the stress out of driving.
Instead of being stressed, anxious and frustrated, I was relaxed, calm and confident. Instead of not having a clue where I was, I could now see clearly where I was going, how many twists and turns were expected along the way, and when I was expect to arrive at my destination.
What a change from driving with a mapbook, or phoning for directions (let alone the ultimate shame - stopping to ask someone directions!).
And this amazing change in outlook and sense of control is available nowadays at a remarkably affordable cost, recognizing the amazing benefits it brings us.
Well, what struck me was this - navigating the markets has evolved in a very similar way.
In the past, for the knowledgeable, there were certain tools that could be used to give traders some direction when trading the markets (trendlines, indicators, oscillators, etc), but these did not work well when the the markets were hit by severe turbulence, and in times like these almost everyone gets hurt ... and some badly.
You don't have to go back too far for some proof of this.
How many financial 'experts' were casualties of the collapse in the global markets in 2007-2008? And how many casualties from the Rand's collapse in 2001 and 2008?
The fact is, most of us can pick up a trend (the trend is your friend, they say). But the problem is, we then extrapolate that trend into the future and feel comfortable and content. And the longer the trend is in place, the more comfortable we feel. And because of this, we become complacent and don't take the actions when we should, or we do the opposite of what we should.
And we get hurt.
(I know, because I did just this when the Rand hit 13.85 in 2001, and we bought plenty Dollars, expecting it was going to 20.00 to the Dollar. Ouch!)
Why does this happen over and over again?
Because markets do not move like we expect them to - and they do not trend forever.
They can and do change trend – and when they do, it can be sudden and severe.
This is because markets are driven by sentiment. And they move in patterns. Which repeat themselves.
This was discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the early 1930s, a US stockbroker. When studying the US stock market movements, he discovered there were certain patterns that repeated themselves over and over, in both smaller and larger degrees. And what he discovered is that these are the result of mass human sentiment or emotion (like a human herd instinct) which drives the market from one extreme to the other - from fear and panic ... to hope and greed ... and back again.
And while these movements are the result of totally irrational emotional behaviour ("I'll do what others are doing", "there is safety in numbers"), they are predictable. How predictable? Well, based on this discovery, which he named the Elliott Wave Principle, in 1941 Elliott predicted a 70 year bull market in US stocks before the next major crash.
Which is just what happened. Pretty amazing forecast, huh?
Following this, there have been others that have studied this Principle and applied its rules to forecast financial markets with remarkable accuracy - Elliott experts like Hamilton Bolton, A.J. Frost, Robert Prechter. But it has much been reserved to the elite few who could correctly analyze the markets and apply the Elliott Wave rules objectively, despite their own instinct to follow the herd.
But again, technology has come to the rescue.
Back in 2004, when we were desperately looking for something that could predict the markets, we came across the Refined Elliott Trader, an amazing ground-breaking refinement of Elliot's Wave Principle.
While we were very skeptical at first, after many months of learning to use this technology and then live-testing it, we were convinced - if used correctly, this technology worked. We could predict future market movements accurately 80% of the time.
And it was while driving around Johannesburg (using my GPS) that it struck me...
on exactly the same principle as GPS technology
It's uniqueness is based on having mapped and analyzed millions of historical market movements (roads taken in the past) and catalogued them according to Elliott Wave rules. And then when analyzing a current market, this pattern-matching software compares the patterns with its database of historical patterns in similar markets. And provides the most likely outcome, based on how similar historical patterns progressed and completed in both time and magnitude...
...Or more accurately - how persons in similar markets have reacted in similar circumstances and price movements up to that point.
Quite simply - this is a GPS for the markets...
Giving you the extremely valuable information as to...
...and more than this, what you can expect on the way,
and when you can expect turns or sharp changes in trend.
As an example, below is a copy of our Near Term Forecast issued on 24 October 2012 - showing clearly how we expected the market to move over the next few weeks.
No crashing into barriers, or riding off cliffs, or finding ourselves off the highway. No damage to our vehicle, or ourselves.
Just as a GPS takes the stress out of driving in unknown territory...so this technology and our service takes the stress out of your trading decisions.
And if you do go off the road, or there is an unexpected detour (as there sometimes are), you are soon shown how to get back onto the road and where to from there.
And, just like a GPS, this totally amazing change in outlook plus sense of knowledge and control is available at a remarkably affordable cost, recognizing the amazing benefits it brings you.
If you are a client who has made the decision to invest in your financial well-being in this way, you well know the difference it makes.
And if you haven't yet, all I can say is: Try it out for yourself. Risk-free for 60 days.
I can guarantee, based on the many testimonials from satsfied clients, that you will see the markets in a totally different light - and more importantly, experience a significant improvement in your stress levels, ability to concentrate, time for other things...and your profit levels.
1 Response to "A GPS for the Rand and other Markets?"
You could definitely see your expertise in the work you write. The world hopes for even more passionate writers like you who aren't afraid to say how they believe.