Welcome to another issue of our Weekly Rand Review.

Welcome to another whirlwind week covered in our Weekly Rand Review.

With local challenges and unfolding global political dramas, there was plenty to keep the markets on their toes.

As for the Rand, it seemed to be navigating the week with aplomb...

...until Friday afternoon, when the markets were turned upside down after Ukraine's Zelensky was unceremoniously exited from the White House after an Oval Office clash.

It seems there is no end of drama - let's give you some of the lowdown...

Key Moments (24-28 Feb 2025):

Some of the more critical factors affecting price action this week:

• US Durable Goods Surprise:Durable goods purchases came in higher than expected, boosting the USD
• Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office Clash: A heated meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy ended abruptly without a resolution, straining US-Ukraine relations and hopes of peace.
• Crypto Sector Gets a Boost: Announcement of US Crypto Reserve gives the crypto sector a much needed boost.

The Rand opened the week on the front foot after a great turnaround the previous week...

...but could it capitalize on this, or was it running out of steam?

Our forecast from a week or so prior had suggested the latter and that a reversal was imminent after a last thrust lower into the 18.29-17.98, with a push above 18.62 then expected (see below).

It was going to be interesting to see how this all played out...

...and what would trigger the reversal!

Rand Tests Lower Then Meanders Higher

Opening the week around R18.37/$, we saw the local unit re-test Friday's lows of R18.29/$ but it was unable to break lower, and lost ground, hitting a high of R18.43 before managing to end the day gaining a couple of cents for the day...

...a pretty uneventful day all-in-all!

And that seemed to set the flavour for the next couple of days, as the market moved in a maximum 15-cent range, closing out at R18.37 to the US dollar on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The market seemed unmoved by local inflation coming in at 3.2%, which was higher than the previous month, but lower than expectations.

US Data Gives US Dollar a Boost

Thursday saw the market break out of the largely sideways trend as it tested the R18.49/$ level before closing around R18.45/$...

...with the Dollar getting a boost following better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data, which showed a 3.1% month-on-month improvement in January (much higher than the 2% market expectations)...

...while locally PPI came in at 0.5% MoM and just 1% YoY.

And before we knew it, Thursday was over - with no real surprises!

It was almost too calm...

...like a Calm Before the Storm

Enter Friday Fireworks

Enter Friday, and initially it seemed like it was going to be more of the same, as the Rand pushed higher to hit R18.53 in morning trade before managing to pull back a full 10 cents by early afternoon...

...and then all hell seemed to break loose!

And it was not an economic release that did it...

...but instead it was the ousting of a political head from the Oval Office following a tense and heated public exchange between Ukraine's President Zelensky and President Trump and VP JD Vance.

This was supposed to be a signing ceremony for a rare earth mineral deal that the US had brokered with Zelensky that would in part help repay the US for the hundreds of billions in aid over the past few years, and in turn provide some security through having a US presence there...

...and was supposed to be a big step towards a peace deal.

But it all turned sour pretty quickly, after it became apparent that Zelensky was not actually wanting peace, which led to some heated exchanges in front of the press, with Trump warning the Ukraine president that he was 'gambling with World War III'...

...following which he was unceremoniously escorted out the White House - with no deal signed.

...with Trump posting publicly that he could come back when he was ready for peace.

This seemed to really spook the markets...

...and the US Dollar shot higher across the board, with the Rand taking a beating as it shot higher to hit R18.72/$, before retreating in late trade to close out the week in the mid R18.60s.

And in so doing, nicely validated our forecast published above!

And in other news...

More than Meets the Eye in Wake of Oval Office Clash

What is interesting is that in the wake of the Oval Office spat, Zelensky headed to visit No. 10 Downing Street, with PM Keir Starmer receiving him warmly and stating his unwavering support for Zelensky, which was echoed by many European leaders...

...which was just days after Starmer had himself sat in the Oval Office and re-confirmed that the US and UK have a long history of being close allies.

But what had been kept rather quiet was the fact that the UK and Ukraine had already in January signed a 100-year partnership agreement with Ukraine, covering security, trade and economic co-operation across a range of sectors, including a "critical minerals strategy"!

The date of this agreement?

16 January 2025 - just four days before Trump was inaugurated!

Which begs the question: Did Zelensky have any intention of actually signing the deal, or was there some other agenda afoot?

Definitely more than meets the eye going on here...

Crypto Gets a Big Boost with US Crypto Reserve Announcement

Gold made a slightly higher high early in the week before falling, but managed to recover late on Friday.

But it was the crypto world that got a real boost with the weekend announcement by Trump regarding the establishment of a Crypto Strategic Reserve which would include Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL) in addition to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

The announcement gave an immediate boost to crypto coins, being just the trigger needed as these markets were coming out of a corrective low.

This is a significant event from a few perspectives:

• It signals an end to the US administration's targeting of the crypto industry.
• It puts a nail in the coffin for a US-based CBDC (central bank digital currency), which would have been the ultimate globalist control mechanism.

We are certainly living in interesting times!

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Although this was less volatility than we have seen...

...as can be seen above, these are still significant risks - for gains and losses

The question is: How are you managing these risks and exposures?

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The Week Ahead

And we are already into March - and we seem to be going faster than ever!

Some big potential triggers this week, with Current Account locally, an interest rate decision by the ECB, and of course, US Non-farm Payrolls on Friday.

But it will be the unfolding geopolitical events will likely dominate again, with the stuttering Ukraine peace talks and US tariffs being introduced this week on China, Mexico and Canada for a start.

Where does this leave the Rand?

We will forget the noise and instead continue to look to what the charts and sentiment cycles themselves are telling us...

...I recommend you do the same!

To give you a little helping hand, feel free to take our Rand forecasting service for a test-drive!

This will give you access to the same charts that help guide us and our clients with the likely direction of the Rand - ahead of time, enabling us to make educated and informed decisions.

Simply use the link below to get access now.

No charge. No card. All yours to try out for 14 days.

If you have any questions or feedback, please leave them below.

To your success~

James Paynter

P.S. Worrying about how to in manage your Rand exposures this year? Email me or give me a call on (041) 373-6310 or (087) 551 2848 - we would love to help.

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