The Rand hit a three-and a-half year high on Monday 8 October to close in on 9.00 to the Dollar (8.9968 to be precise).
And of course, as usual, economists and financial news reporters are scurrying around to find all sorts of reasons to justify this current move:
...the nation wide transport strike
...the continuing mine strikes following Marikana
...Moody's downgrade of the banks
...Amplats firing of 12000 workers
...reduced foreign interest in emerging markets.
The funny thing is, if the Rand had moved stronger, they would have used the same reasons, with a different spin on it:
...Investors shrug off Moody's downgrade,
Or...Rand rallies as investors pin faith in mining sector.
And so on.
This is classic looking-back economist logic, and while it might help put some reasoning to the Rand's collapse, it does nothing for telling you before the fact what was going to happen...
...Or better still, where to now?
That's why we and our clients don't look at the news, or listen to economists, or ask our banks where the market is going.
We simply look at charts that tell you clearly where the market is going to ... long before the fact.
Like the chart below that we issued on 16 July 2012:
[Click the image to see the full Medium Term forecast. In fact, as a Bronze status client, you can see the history of short, near and medium term forecast updates leading up to and beyond this one at www.forexforecasts.co.za/history/usdzar_mtu/
Now, this forecast was issued on 16 July 2012, and predicted a rise above 8.70 the next few months, which happened on Friday, 5 October - just short of 3 months later...
That's a FULL MONTH before the Marikana massacre on 16 August.
Before the unrest, before the strikes, before Moody's downgrade.
While everyone was still complacent.
That is the power of the Elliott Wave Principle, and the forecasts that we issue using this technology. Simply Giving you tomorrow's new today, so you can take the necessary actions to benefit or protect yourself.
And this is the kind of ongoing picture you can get going forward - when you take join us and our clients on the inside track.
An objective, scientific-based forecast that allows you to forget all the noise and plan your business and forex transactions with certainty upfront...
...instead of regret at what might have been - after the fact.
This is not a sales pitch, it is telling you what we have that we have used to our advantage, and our clients have used to theirs. And that it is available for you to use to your advantage, at a fraction of what it will save you in time, stress and money.
The fact is, it hurts me when I know that there are so many out there that never saw this move coming, and as a result lost or lost out on thousands (and some with many more zeros than that).
Whereas for something like 12 bucks a day (SA bucks that is), they could have been in a much better (and much happier) position right now.
If that is you, please, FOR YOUR OWN SAKE, take us up on our special risk-free offer now.
You have a full 60 days to try it out - at our risk entirely. If you are not entirely thrilled with the service, let us know and we will refund you in full.
I look forward to having you on board. And again, please give us a shout if you have any questions.
To your success~
James Paynter
4 replies to "Rand Hits 9.00 to the Dollar - Surprised?"
Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my cousin were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a book from our local library but I think I learned better from this post. I’m very glad to see such great info being shared freely out there…
Tell me this is a joke
@Sam
I can understand your feelings exactly, because it took me a long time to appreciate that market price movements are merely the result of the composite sentiment and human emotions of the persons involved in that market. And because we tend to react in exactly the same way to things as our predecessors do, and in the same way as we did previously, the results are law-abiding patterns that repeat themselves over and over again, in smaller and larger degrees.
If you look back at the last 1929 Crash and the Great Depression and the news at that time, and compare it to today, you will see a very similar picture unfolding. History repeats itself. Why? Because humans create history and we tend to think and act in the same way over and over again - often irrationally, but predictably.
Once you see this, and understand it, it is an 'Aha' moment of note, as you realize that all markets are not random (as many will believe), but a perfect reflection of rhythmic law-aiding mass human emotion.
James
The big question is wtheher this downturn will behave like the other post WWII recessions, or like the great depression. So far, most predictions that it would behave normally (starting from a year ago) has been obliterated although much of this is because the government response has been pathetically below expectations (until, perhaps, the last month).Immediate history, therefore, may not be a good prediction. We can note some unique factors:The average lifespan of autos, for instance, has increased, but up through 2006 we continued to exhibit sales growth outpacing population growth. This suggests excess ownership, which can be redistributed through second-hand sales (particularly as people lose jobs). In other words, leaving aside super-deals (and we've seen some of them), what is the natural resupply rate for the US auto market? I suspect that, under pressure, consumers could keep their clunkers going quite a while. As new data has come in, the US auto industry has continued to cut production and push back the anticipated date of its demand-rebound, and it may just settle down to a lower steady-state (not necessarily a bad thing). And this is not just a US problem. Sales of importers to the US have suffered almost as much.We can ask the same question of cell-phones and computers. Prior to the meltdown, sales were kept up partially be replacement (upgrading monitors to flat screens) to newer models, and partly by purchases of second and third systems (discretionary). So where are the new systems that are crucial to have, and will people sustain discretionary purchases? (Is there another big leap in the next year, or are we running-out the product lifecycle?) Likewise, homeownership has exceeded historical levels, and we still have an excess supply due to second-home ownership and investment ownership. Also, if we see a long term transition to smaller (but more efficient/comfortable) homes, there is no reason for larger and poorly constructed homes to reflate in value (leaving consumers chained to long-term debt payments).Also, there's the question remains just how much real and longlasting change has occurred to the consumerist American psyche. We won't know that for a while, but many semi-discretionary purchases (clothing, accessories, electronics, travel) could continue to suffer as some people re-evaluate their entire lifestyle.Remember, that in spite of the highly-criticized aggressive US Fed action, we just saw 0.4% year-on-year decline in prices. In the long run, there are sectors that need to grow but something needs to keep demand stable/growing long enough for resources to transition into the new sectors (and those new sectors may require significant govt. support).There is still concern that govt. is not doing enough and that the periodic upward blips (with bear market rallies) will keep giving everyone hope that the economy will heal by itself in just a few months (without taking the aggressive steps necessary).