The Rand hit 9.3655 against the Dollar on 21 March 2013 (its worst levels in 48 months) and in so doing, broke through a critical level of 9.1750 - which signals more weakness in the months ahead.
Of course, this has been blamed on all sorts of bad news –
...the Italian elections, Gordhan's 2013/2014 Budget
...February trade figures, the 4th Quarter Current Account deficit
...and more recently the Cyprus bailout, Euro weakness and more local strike action.
The little understood fact is that, while events can trigger Rand fluctuations, it is the emotional human reaction to these events – the underlying mass psychology or market sentiment – that will dictate which direction the market will move.
As we noted in our recent post,
And this is just what has happened since, as the market has consistently reacted negatively to these various events and news.
But once again, the sophisticated Elliott Wave technology we use to analyze these patterns of human emotion was predicting this move – before any of these events took place.
The inset chart shows our Dollar/Rand forecast for the next few weeks on 14 February 2013 – and the subsequent Rand movement.
As you can see, the market moved exactly in line with the forecast. This is the beauty of understanding the market and pattern-matching technology.
It didn’t matter what events (known or unknown) were on the horizon, the patterns of mass human emotion up to that point were Rand-bearish, and any event was merely used as a trigger to turn more Rand-negative, and complete the expected pattern.
Economists, fundamental analysts and financial news experts will try and tell you where the market is going based on the data they are focused on.
As an exporter or importer, understanding this is critical to your business, and relying on an objective, scientific-based forecast that uses past patterns to forecast future ones (with an 8 year track record) allows you to ignore all the noise and equips you with a tool to make educated and informed decisions – and take action – with the probabilities in your favour.
The result:
and allowing you to focus on your core business.
For up-to-date detailed analysis and outlook with probabilities, confirmation and invalidation levels, get our current limited-time risk-free subscription offer here.
To your success~
James Paynter
