Rand Review - 14 Nov 2016

What. A. Week.

Shocking, amazing, worrying, and incredible.

Many more words could be used to describe one of the most historical week's in history, as President-Elect Donald Trump took center stage, and financial markets shook around the world in anticipation of the next step.

This week, the Rand moved back and forth over R2 in just 4 days - more than 200 cents.
To make it worse, about 120 of those cent moves were done in a combined period of 8 hours.

That is 15c per hour... for 8 hours.

Absolutely mind-boggling.

Such volatility could have been the making of someone's million, or the losing of someone's life savings. And going with instinct and emotion, I think you could well have ended up with the later.

The most amazing thing of all about this week?

The Elliott Wave Principle predicted the WHOLE thing in advance.

Believe us? If not, read on...

Monday morning began. Big week ahead. A lot due to happen.

The Rand began trading at a quiet 13.55 to the Dollar, with not too much happening on the markets. However, we knew it had to be the calm before the storm as this week just was going to be the most volatile we had seen in some time.

Our forecast (see below - click to enlarge) gave us the pathway for the next couple of days. We were due to see a retracement lower before we would see a rather sharp weakening of the Rand.

This outlook certainly did not look good for the coming few days...

Click to enlarge

Gently, throughout Monday, the Rand followed our forecast as it strengthened slightly.

However, as the afternoon wore on, it began to near our invalidation level...

And late on Monday, it broke through 13.36 with no sign of stopping just yet. This meant we were due to do a forecast on Tuesday morning, the day of the biggest event of the year - the USA presidential elections.

After a build up of over two years for this (possibly further, depending how far you look back), tensions were bound to be high, and volatility likewise...

It was sure going to be a big day!

Tuesday dawned for South Africa while America still caught up on some sleep, 7 hours behind.

Due to the time difference, it was always going to be some time before any effects of the election would be seen in the markets.

So as America slept, we issued our revised forecast for the coming couple of days (see below - click to enlarge). This was possibly one of our most crucial forecasts for the year, and we were certainly as interested as our subscribers, as to what the wave counts were going to tell us for the big day.

Our revised forecast showed the market trading at 13.38 and expected to strengthen even further before bottoming... But once it had bottomed, it was expected to climb (weaken).

Click to enlarge

And our forecast hit the nail on the head.

Throughout the day, the Rand gained ground, and moved stronger and stronger as time went on.
The Rand moved to a fantastic level of 13.16 to the dollar! This validated our forecast perfectly, as it had moved right into the target area.

Not many persons noticed this, but the Rand actually pipped the best level for the entire year, meaning levels like this had not been seen since October 2015.

No definite triggers seem to be causing this, but a consistent strengthening marked the day...
...until the early hours of Wednesday morning that is...

As the first few exit polls, general sentiment, and a few results started to filter through at 7-8pmpm in the USA, the markets turned upside down.

The Rand, which was buoyant after its best level for the whole year, was left lying flat on its back in a matter of 1.5 hours.

R13.26 to 13.78, in under 2 hours.

Nothing short of devastating.

This all happened while South Africa slept in the early hours of Wednesday morning. By the time persons reached their offices on Wednesday morning, they were greeted with a Rand at 13.50, and a new American president about to be elected.

And it was not only the USD/ZAR.

Also the EUR/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and many many other markets had similar dive bombs or sky rockets. The election had certainly left its mark on the financial markets, as well as the whole of America!

The markets continued along the same route... Helter-Skelter the entire day, with choppy moves up and down.

Wednesday's movements did not fill us with confidence despite the market actually recovering pretty well from the antics during the early morning. By the time the day ended, it was back under 13.50 and leaning closer to 13.40.

And then it was Thursday morning.

Once again, time for another one of our normal updates again. And then again, in one way it was not just another normal update. Volatility was not exactly much different from what it was on Tuesday, as the vote of #NoConfidence in Zuma raged on during Thursday.

The outlook tended to agree with that view (see below - click to enlarge). The markets were FAR from being stable, and we were to brace ourselves for the coming few days.

With the market sitting at 13.42 when we did our forecast, we were looking at a 60-90c weakening of the Rand, in just a few days.

This was a shock to us... Not often have our forecasts ever shown such a large move due in just a few days.

These kinds of moves can literally break a business in two..

Click to enlarge

And so the day began, moving fairly calmly at first... It began to move down toward 13.35, as was generally pretty calm until mid morning.

Then the markets, for the second time in a single week, were turned upside down.

The time bomb exploded. And the Rand soared.

Soon it was 13.50... 13.70... 13.90... 14.00... 14.15...!

Right into our target area, validating a forecast most person's would have scoffed at.

An absolute horror day for the Rand... Most would have preferred to have ended the week right there.

But... there was still more to come.

The Rand steadied slightly throughout the remainder of the day and by Friday morning, it had settled just under 14.

And then it all started up again.

The Rand spiked, and before we knew it, it was nearing 14.50 to the Dollar. #StateCapture reports, resignations and more were not making this any easier for the Rand, as it went to its worst level in 2 months.

What a week in reflection... The Rand's best level in over a year, and its worst level in 2 months, all in the space of a couple of days.

We are in dangerous waters right now... and no sign of getting out of them anytime soon.

After one of the most difficult week's in history, many are hoping that it cannot get any worse from here.

The list of things which are working against the Rand is seemingly endless.

Some of these include:
• Zuma's corruption charges - when will he EVER be prosecuted?
• Talk of the NPA coming after Gordhan again
• #StateCapture report busy playing out with many more heads set to roll
• #FeesMustFall protests still lingering on
• Much more that doesn't come to mind at the moment, and even more which is beneath the surface, unseen by us...

So how can the Rand ever recover from a list of things like that which are in directly opposed to it?

And even worse - how can we see what is coming next?

Trust us, we are as worried as you for the coming few months. As we said, dangerous waters are all around SA's economy.

And while we cannot promise that we will make the Rand 'get better', we can promise to provide you with some forecasts which are a lot more accurate than sentiment, gut feel, or general economic noise.

Our premium subscribers are always up to date with these forecasts (which are based on that very Principle - tracking human emotion):

Our forecasts (updated twice weekly) :

• A Short Term Forecast (next few days)
• A Near Term Forecast (next few weeks)
• A Medium Term Forecast (next few months)
• A Long Term Forecast (next few years)

Plus all these premium features:

• Access to data which shows exactly which events are coming, their impact and when they are due to hit
• Live pricing and charts on the Rand and other currencies
• Email & SMS Price Alerts
• Live Chat Access to Top Analysts
• And much more...

, we have some uncomfortable weeks ahead of us. Please take our trial risk-free to see what a difference it can make to you:

• Save more on your forex transactions
• Ease the stress of forex decision-making
• Give you an objective outlook for the coming days, weeks, months & years
• Grow your business (and bank account), using our forecasts and tools

I look forward to seeing you on the inside path.

For those of you who are not subscribed to our forecasts already:

As always, I would love to hear your comments and feedback - please leave a comment below.

To your success~

James Paynter