A week which began so well for the Rand...
...and then it all fell down in a heap.
The past few months have seen consistent strengthening for the Rand, leading many to think that it was some kind of miracle that we were going to see levels like this for some time yet...
...they were wrong!
The house of cards of positive sentiment which had slowly been built up with the Rand's ongoing strength suddenly was hit by a cool breeze - and then collapsed!
Before we knew it, the Rand had punched 30c in the other direction
Surprise for most...
...but you could have seen this all coming!
Read below to find out the WHY and the HOW..
How It Happened (6-10 Mar 2017) From the outset, we had identified this week as being a biggie.
Sentiment was seeming to be reaching an extreme, and with the amount of events during the week, something had to give.
So as action started on Monday just sub R13/$, there was a lot of expectation...
Before our forecast was even released, the Rand had gained 10c during the early hours of Monday morning.
When the forecast was released (see below - click to enlarge) it showed us a tight 60/40 split on the forecast. The Rand had either bottomed our or was due to bottom out in the next few days... after that, we were to expect Rand weakness into the R13.27-13.42 area.
!USDZAR STU 20170309 g2a Minimal economic events meant that there was not much action expected during the course of Monday.
Such was not the case...
...the Rand had its own ideas and hopped back and forth on Monday.
To put it in simple terms:
If you looked within the days range of 14c, there was actually
35c worth of moves within that range, in just 24 hours!
Tuesday brought a fresh start.
But unfortunately not that good of a one from a news point of view.
Despite the Rand strengthening for the first half of the day, the movement was choppy. On top of that, the news finally arrived as to South Africa's GDP arrived in the late morning, and it did not make good reading.
A mere 0.3% growthis likely to take us for the next few days, weeks, months & years.
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