Rand Holds R17... While Markets Melt Down

SA inflation target hit... US CPI triggers market carnage... Rand somehow survives the week...

Hi Friend,

Welcome to another action-packed edition of the Weekly Rand Review!

This was a week where global markets went through the wringer... with Wednesday's US inflation data triggering one of the worst single-day selloffs since October.

Yet somehow, amid all the chaos, the Rand held its ground relatively well.

From Finance Minister Godongwana hitting his inflation target, to the Dow touching record highs before crashing 797 points, to Bitcoin plunging below $100K...

...there was no shortage of drama.

Let's unpack what moved the markets - and the Rand - this past week.

Key Moments (10-14 November 2025)

Here are the major headlines that shaped the week:

* SA Finance Minister Hits Target - Godongwana announced SA's return to the 3-6% inflation target range on Wednesday, strengthening the Rand from R17.14 to R17.05.

* US Inflation Shocker - Wednesday's CPI data showed headline inflation climbing to 2.7% (from 2.6%), triggering the worst market selloff since October 10.

* Trump Tariff Activity - The administration lowered Swiss tariffs from 39% to 15% on Friday (after Switzerland committed $200B investment), while extending China tariff negotiation deadlines.

* Stock Market Rollercoaster - From Monday's rally to Tuesday-Wednesday's record highs (Dow first close above 48K!), followed by Thursday's brutal crash.

* Crypto Carnage - Bitcoin plunged from $106K to below $96K, shedding 17.7% as $1.1 billion in positions got liquidated.

The week kicked off with the Rand opening around R17.12/$ on Monday morning...

...as markets rallied on news that the US Senate was moving to end the government shutdown that had been dragging on for weeks.

The Dow surged 381 points, the Nasdaq jumped 2.27%, and risk appetite was back in play.

By Tuesday, that optimism reached fever pitch...

...as the Dow hit a RECORD close of 48,254 - marking the first time ever it closed above the 48K level!

The local unit traded sideways in the R17.10-R17.15 range, seemingly content to let the global party play out without getting too involved.

Then came Wednesday...

...and with it, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.

The headline?

South Africa had returned to the SARB's 3-6% inflation target range!

The Rand immediately strengthened from R17.14 to R17.05 in response...

...as markets welcomed the news that SA's inflation battle was finally showing results.

But the celebration was short-lived.

Later that same day, across the Atlantic, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a bombshell...

US CPI data showed headline inflation climbing to 2.7% (up from 2.6%), with core inflation holding at 3.3%.

The market's reaction?

Brutal.

The Dow crashed 797 points (-1.65%), the S&P plunged 1.66%, and the Nasdaq tanked 2.29% - marking the worst day since October 10.

Why the panic?

Because higher inflation means the Fed is less likely to cut rates in December...

...and Fed Chair Powell wasted no time reiterating his commitment to "fighting inflation" in his post-CPI comments.

Rate cut odds for December immediately tumbled from the mid-60% range down to just 49%.

Not exactly what the bulls wanted to hear.

The Rand, caught in the global risk-off wave, weakened back to R17.18/$ as the Dollar surged on safe-haven demand.

Other Big Headlines

Meanwhile, in other big news...

Gold surged during the week's chaos, climbing from around $4,089/oz at Monday's open to touch $4,220/oz by Thursday after the CPI shock.

Safe-haven flows were in full effect as investors fled equities...

...with gold ending the week around $4,169-$4,185/oz, up roughly 4.3% for the week.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, had a nightmare.

The crypto started the week around $106K after bouncing on hopes the government shutdown would end...

...but Wednesday's CPI data triggered a cascade of selling.

By Thursday, Bitcoin had crashed below $100K for the third time this month.

And Friday?

Full capitulation.

Bitcoin plunged to around $95K-$96K, down a staggering 17.7% from its recent highs...

...as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a massive $870 million in outflows in a single day, and over $1.1 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated.

The third-largest weekly ETF outflow on record.

Ouch.

Thursday brought a slight reprieve for the Rand...

...as it clawed back to around R17.12/$ amid some Dollar weakness.

But Friday's action was mixed.

The Trump administration announced it was lowering Swiss tariffs from 39% to 15% after Switzerland committed to a $200 billion investment in the US.

Markets welcomed the move as a sign that Trump's tariff threats might be more about negotiation than permanent policy...

...though ongoing China tariff talks (with the November 10 deadline extended) kept traders cautious.

The Dow managed to pare some losses, dropping only 309 points on Friday, while the Nasdaq actually turned positive (+0.13%).

The Rand ended the week around R17.14/$ - pretty much where it started the week...

...having weathered one of the most volatile global market weeks in recent months.

Not a bad result, all things considered.

The Week Ahead (17-21 November 2025)

Here's what we'll be watching over the next five days:

* SA: Retail Sales YoY (Sep), Mining Production (Sep) * EU/UK: UK CPI (Oct), Eurozone CPI Final (Oct), ECB Minutes * US: Retail Sales MoM (Oct), Housing Starts (Oct), FOMC Minutes

With the US government shutdown ending, we'll finally start getting delayed economic data...

...which means more potential volatility as markets digest the backlog of reports.

The all-important FOMC Minutes (from the November meeting) will be dissected for any hints about December rate cut odds...

...especially after this week's CPI shocker.

Locally, retail sales and mining production will give us insights into whether SA's economy is actually gaining any momentum...

...or if we're still stuck in low-growth mode despite the inflation victory.

One thing's for sure:

After this week's wild ride, traders will be watching every data point like hawks.

The Rand has shown surprising resilience lately...

...but with global uncertainty still sky-high, that could change in a heartbeat.

Our forecasting models will be crucial for navigating what promises to be another interesting week ahead.

Flying blind can be costly in this market - you need to fly by instruments, not gut feel.

To give you a little helping hand, feel free to take our Rand forecasting service for a test-drive!

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