Trump Bans SA from G20... The Rand Barely Flinched

Key Moments (24-28 November 2025)

These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:

🚨 Trump Bans SA from 2026 G20: Miami summit exclusion announced – but Rand shrugs it off 📊 SA PPI Ticks Higher: October producer prices rose to 2.9% YoY from 2.3% – inflation pipeline pressure 📉 SA Trade Surplus Narrows: October balance at R15.58B vs R21.76B prior – exports soften 👷 US Jobs Market Holds Firm: Initial claims drop to 216K – lowest in 7 months 🏭 US Durable Goods Beat: September orders +0.5% vs +0.3% expected – delayed by shutdown 🦃 Thanksgiving Lull: US markets closed Thursday, early close Friday – volumes thin 💪 Rand Rallies 24c: Local unit strengthens from R17.35 to R17.11 – best week in over a month

Weekly Statistics

• Open to Close Move: The week opened at R17.35/$ Monday morning and closed Friday afternoon at R17.11/$ – a 24c (1.4%) strengthening.

• Average Daily Range: ~11c (0.6%) Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R110,000

• Maximum Single-Day Move: ~13c (0.8%) on Monday Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R130,000

• Weekly Range: 31c (R17.08 low to R17.39 high) – 1.8% swing Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R310,000

Full Newsletter

Another week, another dose of political drama from across the Atlantic.

But here's the thing: While Trump was busy banning South Africa from next year's G20...

...the Rand quietly did what the Rand does best - follow sentiment, not headlines.

The local unit opened Monday at R17.35/$ and closed Friday at R17.11/$ - a solid 24 cents stronger (1.4%) despite all the headlines screaming about diplomatic disasters.

Let's break down what actually moved markets this week.

The week opened with the Rand at R17.35/$ on Monday morning, still digesting the afterglow of the previous week's S&P upgrade and successful G20 summit hosting.

Local markets were in a good mood...

...and for once, there wasn't much to upset the apple cart.

By Tuesday lunchtime, the Rand had drifted stronger to around R17.28/$ - nothing dramatic, just steady buying interest in a market that seemed content to consolidate recent gains.

The lack of major SA data releases early in the week meant global risk sentiment took the wheel, with the weaker US dollar providing a tailwind for emerging market currencies across the board.

Wednesday was where the action really kicked in.

Across the Atlantic, the US delivered a batch of economic data that painted a picture of resilience:

US Durable Goods Orders came in at +0.5% for September (finally released after the government shutdown delays) - beating the +0.3% consensus...

...with core capital goods orders rising 0.9%, suggesting business investment remains solid despite all the policy uncertainty.

And then, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 216,000 - the lowest level since mid-April...

...a 7-month low and well below the 225,000 expected. The "no hire, no fire" labor market continues (employers aren't hiring aggressively, but they're not laying off either).

Trump Bans South Africa from 2026 G20

The headline that had local media in a spin:

President Trump announced via Truth Social on Wednesday that South Africa will NOT be invited to the 2026 G20 Summit in Miami - citing the refusal to acknowledge the atrocities happening there as well as the handover ceremony "insult" where SA's Foreign Ministry handed the G20 presidency to an empty chair instead of the US Embassy senior official sent there for this purpose.

"South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere," Trump posted, citing the human rights abuses that are happening and adding that all "payments and subsidies" to SA should stop immediately.

The SA Presidency responded, calling the measures "punitive based on misinformation"...

(...why is this word always bandied about by the government and legacy media alike, when there is plenty evidence of the facts?)

Anyway, here's what's interesting...

...the Rand barely flinched, as the USD/ZAR continued trading in a tight range. Why? Because markets had already priced in the deteriorating US-SA relationship after Trump's G20 boycott.

The real question isn't whether SA attends the Miami G20 - it's what happens with AGOA (already expired) and broader trade relations. Those are the economic fundamentals that matter (and they're likely already baked in).

Russia/Ukraine Peace Talks Progress

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, there seems to be significant movement on the Russia-Ukraine front...

...as a 28-point peace proposal drafted by the US has been trimmed down to 19 points after Geneva negotiations, with Ukraine agreeing to a framework and reportedly close to finalizing terms. Trump's envoys have been shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow.

This matters for markets because any resolution would reshape global risk sentiment, commodity flows, and sanctions architecture...

...and bring to end a bloody war that likely was avoidable.

Watch this space.

Thursday brought US Thanksgiving, meaning American markets were closed and trading volumes dropped to a trickle.

But locally, Stats SA delivered the week's key domestic data point:

SA Producer Price Index (PPI) for October came in at 2.9% YoY - up from 2.3% in September...

...which is a notable uptick in producer-level inflation - and could signal pipeline pressure for consumer prices ahead.

The Rand held steady around R17.13/$ despite the higher-than-expected reading...

...with markets seemingly more focused on the global backdrop than domestic inflation dynamics for now.

And then Friday was Black Friday with US markets closed early at 1:00 PM ET, and SA released its Trade Balance data:

October showed a R15.58 billion surplus - still healthy, but down from R21.76 billion the previous month.

The narrowing surplus reflects both weaker commodity exports and recovering imports (a mixed bag for growth interpretation).

By Friday's close, the Rand was changing hands around R17.11/$ - consolidating the week's gains and setting up for what promises to be an eventful December.

The Week Ahead (December 1-5, 2025)

SA: Manufacturing PMI, SARB commentary, Moody's rating review (Dec 5)

US: ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI, ADP Employment Change, Non-Farm Payrolls, Fed speakers

EU: ECB commentary ahead of December 12 meeting