US Jobs Flop...

...and the Rand Still Can't Catch a Break

Well, last week I said I'd be watching whether Friday was the start of the Rand's turn...

...and for three days it looked like it might be.

Then Thursday happened.

The Rand started the week at R16.36/$ and limped home at R16.65/$ (after hitting R16.75) – 29 cents weaker against the greenback, and its worst week since late July.

Let's dig into it...

But first – the call we had out on Friday 25 September, before any of this began.

Our cycles had the US dollar either topped out against the Rand already, or one last push away from a top, somewhere between R16.38 and R16.55. A close above R16.55 would prove us wrong.

The week opened at R16.36/$, and the Rand spent Monday drifting rather than fighting – out to R16.46 by midday, and closing at R16.41/$.

Governor Kganyago used a Monday speech to say the hike was about getting inflation back to 3%, "around the end of next year". So nobody should expect relief from the bank any time soon (Saffers with a bond will be thrilled).

Tuesday was much the same story. The Rand opened at R16.45/$, found its feet by mid-afternoon at R16.36...

...and then gave it straight back into the evening, to close at R16.47/$.

The SARB's Quarterly Bulletin came out that morning and confirmed what we already knew...

...the economy shrank 0.2% in the second quarter.

Meanwhile Dirco summoned US Ambassador Bozell for the third time, over his public criticism of the South African government.

Wednesday gave the Rand its best moment since the early hours of Monday. It opened at R16.41/$, and when US core inflation came in at 3.0% that afternoon (well under the 3.3% expected) the Rand pounced – straight through to R16.31.

It couldn't hold it, though, and slipped back to R16.42/$ by the close – still inside the zone, and 13 cents short of the line that would prove us wrong.

And in other news...

Washington says no again in the Gulf. Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a second time, and the US ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York. Three tankers were also hit in the Strait early in the week.

Brent ran from below $99 on Wednesday to almost $108 by Thursday night, and even the G7's Friday release of 100 million barrels from emergency stocks barely dented it.

Every day the US blockade holds squeezes Tehran a little harder, and Trump looks in no hurry at all!

The greenback hits its best level of 2026. On Thursday the US dollar index punched through 102 for the first time since April last year, with bonds selling off around the world and the US 10-year yield up around 5.3%.

And it wasn't just the Rand – the Mexican peso went through 18 to the greenback, and the euro slid more than 1% on the week.

Our 17 September call had the US dollar index one push short of a top, somewhere in a 101.27–104.65 area...

...and by Thursday it was inside it, at around 102.2.

US Dollar Index Near Term Outlook, issued 17 September 2026.

We put out the same kind of call on the US dollar, gold, the euro and Bitcoin – you can see those here.

The ANC misses the IEC's deadline. The IEC says the party simply didn't press "submit" on its candidate lists in six municipalities, Mangaung (Bloem) being among them, leaving 181 candidates off the ballot for the 4 November local elections. The Electoral Court has already thrown out its appeal, and it is now off to the ConCourt.

Quite something for a party that has been 'running the country' for 32 years (one does wonder how the rest of the paperwork gets done).

SA's AGOA clock is ticking. Washington's decision on whether SA keeps its AGOA access is expected by 1 November, and Solidarity reckons up to 250,000 jobs ride on it...

...which makes Tuesday's summons of the US ambassador a very curious way to go about keeping them.

SA petrol heads through R30 a litre. The latest projections have 95 petrol up about R3.12 a litre on Wednesday 7 October – past R30 inland for the first time ever, with diesel heading for a record too.

Mind you, Naamsa says Saffers bought 12.7% more new cars in September than a year ago...go figure that one out!

Gold slides more than 3% in a war week. So much for the safe haven – it fell to $4,111 an ounce on Monday, and finished the week 3.4% down, its second weekly loss in a row.

To get back to the Rand then...

...Thursday opened at R16.43/$, and the ZAR-selling started before a single US number was out.

Between breakfast and mid-morning the Rand gave up 14 cents, out to R16.58, as bond markets sold off around the world and the greenback went looking for new highs.

Our own home numbers were good, too – the Absa PMI was back above 50 for the first time since May, and Wednesday had already brought producer inflation down to 5.0% and a R20.5bn trade surplus.

But the Rand couldn't have cared less.

Worse still, at 4pm the US ISM survey showed factory prices running at their hottest since the Iran war began, and the Rand had no answer – pushing to hit R16.73 inside two hours!

It was on its knees by our close, at R16.69/$ – 25.6 cents weaker on the session and its worst day since 23 July, with R16.75 still to come that evening.

The ISM number was the trigger, but it wasn't the reason. Persons had been piling into the US dollar for weeks (the US dollar index gained more than 2% in September alone), and on Thursday the rush simply turned into a stampede.

And then came Friday, and the US jobs report – 29,000 new jobs against around 85,000 expected, with July's figure revised to a loss. That is the kind of number that is supposed to knock the greenback flat!

And the Rand?

It opened at R16.69/$, and when the jobs figure came out at 2.30pm it rallied hard, to R16.56 within a couple of hours...

...but the greenback shrugged off the miss almost as quickly as it came.

And by the close in US trade the Rand had run out of steam, back at R16.65/$ – just 4 cents better on the day.

So what of the call we started with?

Within the first few hours of Thursday's trade the US dollar closed above R16.55 – the line we had drawn – and our outlook needed to be updated. Based on our latest updated analysis, we have some interesting days ahead, with key levels being watched.

Volatility and Risk Analysis

For those of you carrying US dollar exposures, here's what the week meant in Rand terms:

That is the widest weekly range since the first week of August, and nearly three-quarters of it came on one day.

An importer who covered at Wednesday's close paid 22.5 cents less on every US dollar than one who waited until Friday's close – R225,100 per $1 million.

A month ago the Rand closed a week below R16/$, yet this week it touched R16.75...

...which just goes to show that by the time the headline arrives, the crowd has usually made up its mind already!

Have you got questions about what a week like this does to your own Rand exposures? Just hit reply – I read them all.

To your success

James Paynter

P.S. Every Friday we put the next week's call out before a single session has traded – where the move should run out, and the price that says we got it wrong. That is 21 years and 8,756 scored Rand forecasts at 72.3% average accuracy. See the Strategic Rand forecasts