About James Paynter

On 4 March 2003 one wrong call on the Rand cost my family business R576,856.24, and I spent the next 18 months finding out why.

All the talk was that the Rand was headed to R20, so we locked in forward cover at 12.5257 and watched the rate fall to 8.60. What I found became 21 years of published forecasts: 8,672 Rand forecasts at 72.3% average accuracy, every forecast published before the event.

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Where it started

A tank container business with US dollar income and Rand investors

In 1993 I co-founded Premier Tank Solutions, a family business that managed stainless steel tank containers leased offshore in US dollars on behalf of South African investors. It was the first offshore investment the South African Reserve Bank permitted. The rental income arrived in US dollars, and every quarter we converted it and paid our investors in Rands.

Over 26 years the business managed 779 tank containers for 161 investors, leased in six countries (the US, Puerto Rico, the UK, Belgium, Germany and Japan), and earned US$28.85 million in rental income.

I was an investor myself, and the exposure ran both ways: US dollar rental income coming in, and US dollar shipping and equipment costs going out. Converting that income every quarter is what first took me to technical analysis, looking for a better rate each time.

December 2001 to March 2003

The forward cover we took when the Rand was at 13.85

The Rand had weakened for years, from around R3.30 to the US dollar in 1994 to past R5.00 in 1996, R6.50 in 1998 and R7.20 in 2000. Then, in 2001, it blew out to 13.85. All the talk was that we were headed to R20.

So, in our wisdom, we decided not to cover our investors' future US dollar income. Why would we, with another R6 per US dollar seemingly on the table? Instead, with new tank containers on order, we “prudently” covered the US dollar shipping costs on those tanks: US$185,000 of forward cover, the first tranche on 21 December 2001, at a combined rate of 12.5257.

Then the Rand turned. It was below 12.00 within weeks, at 10.00 by May 2002 and 8.60 by December 2002. Investors who had been clamouring to get their money offshore cancelled. We cancelled tank orders and paid the penalties, and we were left holding US$116,080 of import cover we could not use, which had already lost over 30% of its value. We held on, expecting (desperately hoping) the Rand would weaken again.

Which it didn't, of course.

On 4 March 2003 we threw in the towel and closed out the balance of that cover at R8.00, for a forex loss of R576,856.24. I remember that day like it was yesterday. Apart from sleepless nights and grey hairs, all we had to show for it was a certificate from the School of Hard Knocks.

2003 to 2005

Eighteen months looking for what really drives the Rand

I was left with three questions. What was driving the Rand, to whiplash the way it had? Why had we made exactly the wrong decision when things were looking so rosy? And was there a way to avoid doing it again?

Trade fundamentals matter over the long term, but what really drives the Rand, I found, is people making emotionally charged decisions, pushing the market from one extreme of sentiment to the other.

At those extremes your emotions tell you to do exactly the opposite of what you should be doing, which is precisely what we did in December 2001. And because people tend to make the same decisions in similar circumstances, those patterns of sentiment repeat.

In late 2004, almost by accident, I came across Elliott Wave analysis, which maps those repeating patterns. I completed the Elliottician certification course in early 2005 and the Advanced Elliottician course that September, and in October 2005 I was selected as one of only three international analysts by Elliottician LLC.

2005 to today

Forecasts published before the event since October 2005

In October 2005 I began publishing forecasts for 217 selected clients. From late October 2005 to July 2006 they were 89% accurate. I have published them ever since. Each forecast carries a direction, price targets, an invalidation level and a time window, and is measured against what the market actually did.

8,672

Rand forecasts scored

72.3%

Average accuracy

Years of published forecasts

3,000+

Clients since 2005, in 33 countries

Sundays River Citrus Company

A citrus exporter with an annual forex book of R1.3 to R1.7 billion used my forecasts in its hedging over four seasons, from 2017 to 2020. The margin improvement averaged 1.19%, and in 2019 the gain was 2.45%, worth over R35 million.

See the full track record Who we work with

In their words

What clients and peers have said

“I am highly impressed with your ability to both analyse and forecast financial markets. Your track record on the Dollar/Rand is outstanding…”

Rich Swannell

Late founder, Refined Elliott Trader

“…when South Africans are involved and when rand is involved we always use their research…”

Scott Picken

Founder and CEO, Wealth Migrate

“You have saved my business a great deal more than the cost of the subscriptions.”

Brian Keegan

Second Skins (Pty) Ltd

Read all 56 testimonials

Background

Credentials

Co-founder and Technical Director, Premier Tank Solutions, 1993 to 2019
Certified Elliottician and Advanced Elliottician, 2005
Selected as one of three international analysts by Elliottician LLC, October 2005
Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA Level 1), Elliott Wave International, 2016
Author of Chapter 2, Understanding Currency Rates and Values, in Property Going Global (Scott Picken, 2014)
N6 National Diploma in Mechanical Engineering; automotive press toolmaker at VW South Africa, Toolmaker of the Year 1986

Follow my work

How to follow my read on the Rand

The Weekly Rand Review

Free, every Monday: what moved the Rand last week and what to watch in the week ahead.

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Rand forecast plans

USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR forecasts with a direction, price targets, an invalidation level and a time window, on the Essential, Advanced and Premier plans.

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The full record

I deliver market intelligence, not personal financial advice. Forecasts are probabilities, not guarantees. See the disclaimer.